Production:  Regional Production, pool volume, per cow production and cow numbers

The data do not indicate that production market-wide has increased in response to
the over-order producer payment, much less in a market.  Data from the NASS show that milk production in the New England states was 4.56 billion pounds in 1997 and 4.59 billion pounds in 2000.  This describes an overall increase of less than one half of one percent. During the same period, milk production in the United States as a whole increased by 7.41 percent. (Attachment 2m).

             Within New England, production has declined fairly steadily between 1982 and 2000 in each state except for Vermont.  Production has increased in Vermont, but it has not been enough to offset the declines in the other states.  New England production is lower overall in 2000 than it was in the early 1980’s, although it has held fairly constant during the years in which the price regulation was in effect. (Attachments 2n, 2o, 2p). Similarly, the amount of milk pooled under the Compact has been fairly constant over the three full years, 1998-2000, in which the price regulation has been in effect. Consistent with the regional production data, the amount of total milk pooled in the New England states has dropped slightly, and the amount of milk coming into the pool from New York has correspondingly increased slightly. (Attachments 2q and 2r). Data describing fewer farms combined with a stable overall rate of production over time also serve to describe the circumstance of increased production per cow, as indicated in Attachment 2s.  This description is also consistent with the data indicating that the total number of cows in New England is decreasing. (Attachment 2t) and the earlier determination that there is no trend indicating an increase in herd averages.            

             In summary, farmers have continued to supply the demands of the market, adjusting production only as necessary, apparently, in response to the attrition in farms.  There is no indication of a market-distorting increase in production responding to the presence of the price regulation.